Skip to main content

Previous predictions assesed and a bold new prediction.

Edit: This post is less than 2 hours old and I am already questioning my own sanity. To make such a bold prediction about a game I have never played and about which I have only very limited second hand information is surely foolhardy. Nevertheless the deed is done. My gut told me it was so and I wrote it down. I promise to eat humble pie in about a year or so if my prediction turns out to have been laughably incorrect.

One of the nice things about having a blog is that you can use it as your own personal soapbox to pontificate on "What is Going to Happen according to me". Of course making a prediction and it coming true are two very different things so I thought I would review some of my own pearls of predictive wisdom to try and assess a personal hit rate.

In reverse chronological order:

24 April 2009: Serious Games to Make a Comeback because Casual games lack longevity. Too soon to tell but I seem to be a lone voice on this one.

11 November 2008 Predicting the Gastronomic Singularity. The tone of this piece was slightly tongue in cheek but it did purport to use scientific methods to predict a imminent food related event of life changing proportions. I can now reveal that shortly after that prediction we took on a new aupair who thought herself a good cook but who's curiously Germanic interpretation of cuisine was indeed life changing (but not in a good sense). I am going to count this as a hit.

25 June 2008 MMO's are history: A recurrent theme of a several posts in which I posited that the dominance of WOW coupled with the failure of other games to attract new entrants to MMOing signalled the end of the MMO growth phase. It is almost a year later and not a day seems to pass without the announcement of some new MMO or other so I am going to have to count this one as a miss. However in a follow on post I did expand somewhat and suggest that in order to really succeed a new MMO would have to be radically different from existing business models and I guessed that the next big mmo success might be console based, might be casual/browser based and that it should make less demands on its customers. Sony On-line Entertainment's soon to be released "Free Realms" ticks all of those boxes. It is getting some very positive hype from beta testers. Could it become the real WOW killer? This miss could yet turn into a hit.

23 May 2007: Club Penguin to be next Big Thing I think I can safely count this as a hit. Kiddie friendly Club Penguin has been tagged as the second highest earning western MMO.

26 April 2007: PC Gaming To Make a Comeback For a brief moment it looked like the confusion over the next gen console wars had created a window of opportunity for PC games to regain shelf space on the high street. Sadly it was a fairly short lived revival. Once the new Nintendo / Microsoft / Sony pecking order was established retailers once again pushed PC games off the shelves to make way for console favourites. However the continuing success of PC based online multiplayer games, the enormous popularity of casual browser based games and the success stories of digital distribution have ensured that PC gaming remains very much alive if not the dominant force it used to be. PC games may never again rule the high street stores but maybe they don't have to. I am going to count this one as a draw.

Adding up the scores I am gong to award myself an overall score of 2.5/4 for an average hit rate of 62%. No infallible I grant you but accurate enough to give the purveyors of casual games some grounds for trepidiation based on my current prediction of their demise. PopCap take note!

You may wonder at the methods I use to arrive at these predictions: Rigorous analysis? Charting? Inside Information? Reading of tea leaves? In fact I use none of these methods. My predictions come from the heart unsullied by any brush with scientific method. They rely on a combination of gut instinct and wishful thinking.

Finally I think is is appropriate to round this piece off with a new prediction. I am hereby sticking my neck out and predicting that Free Realms will become bigger than World of Warcraft. This prediction is based on almost no evidence. I am not in the beta and I have only read a couple of blog posts and a Wikipedia article about the game. However the game meets my criteria for a WOW killer. It also has the sales and marketing clout of Sony behind it and significantly I think the fact that Sony has lost so much ground on the hardware side with the lacklustre performance of PS3 means that they absolutely need this game to succeed. Sony needs this game to be huge.


Popular posts from this blog

My First Gaming Mouse: Logitech G300

I bought a gaming mouse yesterday a Logitech G300, here my initial thoughts. What is a gaming mouse?  There are a wide variety of devices available classified as gaming mice but a few features  seem common: 1. Wired rather than wireless: Although some high end models are wireless wired connections are just better and faster than wireless so most gaming mice stick with wired. As a bonus wired mice don't need batteries so the mouse is lighter.  2. High response rate: 1 to 2ms response rate so the mouse immediately responds to input.  2. High DPI. Gaming mice invariable boast high DPI numbers from 2,000 DPI upwards. This makes the device very responsive to the smallest movements.   3. Adjustable DPI . High DPI improves responsiveness but reduces precision so gaming mice generally allow you to adjust the DPI down for precise work such as pulling off headshots in sniper mode. Generally the mouse allows dpi to be changed on the fly by pressing a button.  4. Extr

Android Tip 3: Sharing a Folder between multiple users of an Android device

Android has allowed multiple user logins for quite a while now. This is can be very useful for tablets which are shared by family members. Normally Android erects strict Chinese walls between users preventing them from using each others apps and viewing each others files. This is a useful security feature and ensures your kids don't mess up your work spreadsheets when screwing around on the tablet and should also prevent them from buying €1,000 worth of Clash of Candy coins on your account. Sometimes however you really do want to share stuff with other users and this can prove surprisingly difficult. For example on a recent holiday I realised that I wanted to share a folder full of travel documents with my wife. Here are some ways to achieve this. 1. If you have guaranteed internet access  then you can create a shared folder on either Dropbox or Google drive. Either of these has the great advantage of being able to access the files on any device and the great disadvantage of bein

Portal 2 two screen coop on one PC.

I mentioned before that I intended to try Portal 2 in "unofficial split screen co-op mode. Well split screen on a small computer monitor is a recipe for a headache especially when the game defies gravity as much as portal. However a minor bit of extra fiddling allowed us to drive two seperate screens from one PC. The Steam forums describes a complicated method of doing this that I couldn't get working so this simpler method which worked for me might be of use to someone. 1. First I followed the instructions in this post to get split screen multi-player working: A minor issue not mentioned is that you need to enable the console from the keyboard/mouse options menu I am using keyboard and one wired Xbox360 controller as suggested. Getting the controller to switch to channel 2 was tricky at first but as Chameleon8 mentions plugging it out and in again during loading works. The trick for me was to do the plug / p